By Sajjad Shaukat for VT
It is most regrettable that by ignoring the modern global trends like renunciation of war, disarmament, peaceful settlement of disputes and economic development, India has activated dangerous arms race in South Asia.
In this respect, India test-fired its longest range surface-to-surface nuclear ballistic missile Agni-5 from the Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha on December 26, this year.
Agni-5 is capable of striking a target of more than 5,000 km away. The missile can carry a nuclear warhead of more than one tone. It can target almost all of Asia including Pakistan and China and Europe.
While, the Agni-6 is reported to be in early stages of development and the most advanced version, with a strike-range of 8,000-10,000 km.
New Delhi already has in its arsenal—the Agni 1, 2, 3 and 4 missile systems and supersonic cruise missiles like Brahmos.
According to Times of India, “Once the Agni-V is inducted, India will join the super exclusive club of countries with ICBMs (missiles with a range of over 5,000-5,500km) alongside the US, Russia, China, France and the UK.”
It is notable that in its report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) had disclosed on February 22, 2015 that India is the world’s largest recipient of arms—“India (14 percent of global arms imports), China (4.7 per cent), Australia (3.6 per cent) and Pakistan (3.3 per cent).” In its report of 2016 also SIPRI pointed out India’s arms-import.
New Delhi’s military is acquiring a slew of new equipments from combat aircraft to submarines and artillery. It is currently finalising a deal with France’s Dassault Aviation to buy 126 Rafale fighter jets in a contract worth an estimated $12 billion.
Although peace and brinksmanship cannot co-exist in the modern era, yet India seeks to destabilize Asia through its aggressive designs, activated with new arms race.
The US President Barack Obama’s contradictory approach which has resulted into failure of America’s external policy in the Middle East has been meeting the same fate in South Asia. Recall that on September 25, 2008, Obama, while accusing President Bush’s policies in the region, offered it as part of his policy to encourage India and Pakistan to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and resolve the Kashmir problem to reduce nuclear dangers in South Asia and militancy in the region.
Quite contrary to his commitments, during his first visit to New Delhi, on November 6, 2010 President Obama announced the measures, America would take regarding removal of Indian space and defence companies from a restricted “entities list”, and supported Indian demand for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council including membership of four key global nuclear nonproliferation regimes.
And as part of the double standards, America set aside the Indian poor record regarding the safety of nuclear weapons and materials. Despite, Indian violations of various international agreements and its refusal to sign Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Washington signed a pact of nuclear civil technology with New Delhi in 2008. During American President Barack Obama’s visit to India, on January 25, 2016, the US and India announced a breakthrough on the pact which would allow American companies to supply New Delhi with civilian nuclear technology.
Earlier, on November 2, 2010, the US also agreed to sell India the most expensive—the new F-35 fighter jets including US F-16 and F-18 fighters, C-17 and C-130 aircraft, radar systems, Harpoon weapons etc. Besides acquisition of arms and weapons from other western countries—especially Israel, America is a potential military supplier to India. US also pressurized IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group to grant a waiver to New Delhi for obtaining civil nuclear trade on larger scale.
On the other side, America has always preferred New Delhi over Islamabad. In this context, in the recent past, the US State Department official David Ranz stated that the deal of supplying F-16 aircraft to Pakistan was no longer possible, because the deal expired on May 24, 2016, as the U Congress did not approve it.
In fact, US wants New Delhi to continue anti-China and anti-Pakistan role. Beijing is apprehensive about the emerging threat, as during the last visit of Obama to New Delhi, the intent of President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quite clear, while mentioning about free sea lanes and air passages in the South China Sea.
In this connection, tension arose between India and China in the recent past, when Indian army erected a military camp in Chumar Sector of Ladakh at the Line of Actual Control (LAC)-disputed border, situated between the two countries. Similarly, tension remains over the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, as India keeps on violating the ceasefire-agreement in wake of the unresolved issue of Kashmir.
It is mentionable that under the Pak-China pretext, Indian ex-Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor had disclosed on December 29, 2010 that the Indian army “is now revising its five-year old doctrine” and is preparing for a “possible two-front war with China and Pakistan.”
It is noteworthy that after 9/11, both India and Israel which had openly jumped on Bush’s anti-terrorism enterprise have been acting upon a secret diplomacy in targeting Pakistan and China by arranging acts of terrorism in Pakistan and uprising in the Tibetan regions of China. US-led Indo-Israeli secret diplomacy could be assessed from the interview of Israel’s ambassador to India, Mark Sofer, published in the Indian weekly Outlook on February 18, 2008. Regarding India’s defense arrangements with Tel Aviv, Sofer had surprisingly revealed, “We do have a defense relationship with India, and “with all due respect, the secret part will remain a secret.” In fact, with the support of Israel, New Delhi has been acquiring an element of strategic depth by setting up logistical bases in the Indian Ocean for its navy.
As a matter of fact, fast growing economic power of China coupled with her rising strategic relationship with Russia, the Third World and especially Pakistan—after signing of agreement, “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” which is, though for the benefit of South Asia, Asia and other Western countries, has irked the eyes of Americans, Indians and Israelis. Owing to the jealousy, America remains firm to make India a major power to counterbalance China in Asia.
Notably, on July 20, 2011, while hinting towards Pak-China ties, the then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged India to be more assertive in Asia, saying that as American ally, the country should play more of a leadership role. She explained, “India has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific.”
It is owing to the US dual policy that New Delhi openly follows threatening diplomacy in South Asia. In this context, in May 1998 when India detonated five nuclear tests, it also compelled Pakistan to follow the suit. The then Defense Minister George Fernandes had also declared publicly that “China is India’s potential threat No. 1.” Now, by setting aside peace-offers of Beijing and Islamabad, New Delhi has entangled the latter in a deadly arms race.
It is worth-mentioning that when President Obama hosted the fourth Nuclear Security Summit in Washington on March 31, 2016 to check the spread of nuclear weapons, showing concerns about the ambitions of terrorist groups such as the ISIS in acquiring a nuclear weapon or radioactive material. But, the US President-elect Donald Trump had taken a different stand in his interview with the CNN by stating, “More nuclear weapons could make the world safer…US can no longer afford to bankroll the defense of its allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East…Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia may need arsenals to confront threats in their region on their own.”
Similarly, by pursuing the double standards of America in its worst form, Trump also intends to favour India, while opposing the nuclear weapons of Pakistan. Because, being the only nuclear country in the Islamic World, Pakistan annoys the US, Israel and some Western countries. However, like Obama, Trump has brushed aside the ground realities that Indian Prime Minister Modi led by the ruling fundamentalist party BJP has been implementing anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan agenda, while encouraging Hindutva (Hindu nationalism). Besides Muslims, BJP and other extremist outfits have also been targeting the Christians and their places of worship.
It is of particular attention that the BJP leader Dr. Subramaniam Swamys said on July 12, 2014 that India needed only two years to defeat Pakistan militarily, and the only solution of Kashmir was war, as “there is no peaceful solution.” Hence, the pro-Israeli and pro-Indian Trump’s flawed strategy could result into atomic war between India and Pakistan.
Once, the power-theorist, Henry Kissinger had stated that true diplomacy runs in the barrel of gun. This is what Trump is determined to follow not only by increasing American nuclear arsenal, but also encouraging India and other countries in this regard.
Nevertheless, by manipulating American conflicting policy in South Asia, New Delhi is destabilizing the regional countries in general and Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular. In order to obtain its secret designs, aimed at augmenting Indian dominance in the region, India is foiling the peace process between Kabul and Islamabad by managing terrorist attacks like the recent ones in Afghanistan, and by reviving old blame game against Pakistan. India is also thwarting the peace process between the Afghan officials and representatives of Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan, which started in Murree, Pakistan, on July 8, 2015 through a meeting, hosted by Islamabad, and in it, Chinese and American representatives, also participated.
While, international community has been making strenuous efforts for world peace in wake of global financial crisis and war against terrorism, especially against ISIL, but, emboldened by America, New Delhi has particularly initiated deadly nuclear arms race in South Asia where people are already facing multiple problems of grave nature. Majority of South Asian people are living below the poverty level, lacking basic facilities like fresh food and clean water. Yielding to acute poverty, every day, some persons commit suicide.
Even, Indian civil society organizations, while complaining of excessive defense spending, recently, pointed out that the government spends very little amount for the betterment of people. Indian defense analyst Ravinder Pal Singh, while indicating New Delhi’s unending defense expenditures at the cost of poverty-alleviation, calls it guns-versus-butter question.
Nonetheless, by ignoring regional problems and settlement of Indo-Pak issues, particularly the Kashmir dispute which remains a nuclear flashpoint, Indian rulers state that they do not have any belligerent policy. But, it becomes a big joke of the 21st century, reminding a maxim, “armed to the teeth, but no enemy”, if we take cognizance of India’s increasing defense purchases and her aggressive designs.
Undoubtedly, we can conclude, if India continues activating dangerous arms race in South Asia, it can culminate into a nuclear war between Pakistan and India.
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is the author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org