VT: Facts tend to disagree with Dr. Sabrosky’s assertions – Jim W. Dean, Editor VT
By Dr. Alan Ned Sabrosky
It is given to few countries to face a future without any bright sides. Those that have done so in the past, have usually confronted overwhelming external challenges, perhaps compounded by internal difficulties.
In the case of the United States today, that is not the case.
To be sure, there are external challenges with both allies and competitors. But in a very real sense, America today – like so many Western countries – is its own worst enemy, and it may well portend the death of our Constitutional order if not the country itself.
The general election of 2020 will be the stuff of argument and analysis for many years to come, here and abroad. Suffice to say here that a panicky over-reaction to the onset of the COVID-19 virus produced economic hardship and social disorder, compounded by months of riots, looting and arson afflicting hundreds of cities (almost all Democrat-governed) beginning in late May 2020.
All of this set the stage for an election won overwhelmingly on November 3rd by President Donald Trump and lost by him in the following weeks to his Democrat opponent. Joseph Biden, as dumps of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots, appeared in dubious circumstances amidst widespread allegations of fraud and lawsuits challenging the outcome.
The Paths to Dystopia
At this point, only an anarchist or a radical (both of which seem to abound in the modern Democrat party) believing that from chaos arises their utopia would view the future with a sense of satisfaction. I am neither, and while I am not inherently a pessimist, I simply see no way forward that does not present one form or another of disaster – a true dystopia, differing only in type and degree of violence.
What I can say at this point is that the Democrat strategy led them to a victory of sorts in the aftermath of the general election, and set the stage for the dystopias likely to emerge. That strategy had three elements: First, they had deeply flawed presidential and vice presidential candidates – the former in at best questionable mental health with a great deal of family baggage, the latter so weak as a presidential contender she dropped out of the race after the second debate and before the first Democrat primary in Iowa. Their public exposure, therefore, needed to be limited, especially that of Biden, who simply had to be kept out of the public eye as much as possible.
Second, the Democrats had “on call” large numbers of left-wing and/or paid Antifa and BLM (Black Lives Matter) “streeties” (street fighters) with a demonstrated proclivity for violence and a willingness to use the tools of rioting, looting, arson and intimidation for months on end. These people added to the disruption already caused by the over-reaction to the onset of COVID-19, doing their worst with little or no resistance from Democrat mayors and governors whose cities they looted and burned – and often with the implicit or explicit approval of those officials. The hesitation and unwillingness of the President to do what these mayors and governors would not, and restore order, only emboldened these streeties.
And third, the Democrats had on their side a mainstream and social media that was all but united in its opposition to President Trump and had been since at least 2016. For all intents and purposes, these platforms functioned as a propaganda arm of the Democrat National Committee (DNC). The DNC knew that no matter how much their candidate fumbled around, the media would conceal it from the American public, and no matter what Trump did well, to the American people he would be condemned. The media – especially the social media platforms – could be depended on to censor anyone raising differing views critical of Biden or the Democrats, and they did just that. And when widespread and visible election fraud occurred in numerous states in the immediate aftermath of the general election, the media mimicked the three monkeys who neither saw nor heard nor especially said anything about it.
The Dystopias Ahead
It seems to me that navigating the waters between Scylla and Charybdis would be child’s play compared to managing the limited array of dystopias awaiting the American people as we edge toward 2021. There is simply no longer any safe passage, nor any safe outcome, and there is no point in deluding ourselves into thinking otherwise.
The first of the four possible dystopias I envision I’ll call the “cancel culture” dystopia because that is what its dominant theme will be. It is also the one with the least overt violence: Biden and Harris are inaugurated on January 20, 2021 (although how long Biden will be kept in place is very much an open question). Disgruntled Trump supporters grumble, but do no more, nor is there any reason to expect more from them. For years they have let Leftists do great damage to our society, with nothing more than brief protests – and few enough of them. For months this year, they let Antifa and BLM mobs ruin cities, intimidate and even kill citizens – and while they rallied against them and for Trump, they did not lift a finger to stop them.
This dystopia will see the whole “woke/social justice” agenda pursued with active Federal support and intervention. Mandated diversity will be the order of the day, offending statues or names or books will be removed, and the America that was will not be, culturally, morally or politically. And the enfranchisement of illegal aliens now in the United States, coupled with the end of immigration control (ICE), will bring a large voting bloc into the Democrat camp – making us for all practical purposes a one-party state at the national level. There’ll likely be sporadic resistance at some point, but with the armed forces and intelligence agencies at the administration’s beck and call – trust them to put people in charge who WILL do their bidding – not much will come of them. The American experiment will be over.
The second alternative is the “civil war” dystopia. In this scenario, after weeks of Biden proclaiming and being proclaimed President-elect, the 2020 general election is flipped and Trump is declared the winner – as in fact he was and should be, absent mountains of Democrat-run fraud.
It does not matter how this comes to pass: a SCOTUS ruling discarding some or all mail-in ballots, state legislatures de-certifying pro-Biden electors and certifying pro-Trump electors giving Trump a majority in the Electoral College, a vote in the House of Representatives certifying Trump as President and in the Senate certifying Pence as Vice President, whatever – no matter how it happens, Trump is in, Biden is out, and the Left will go absolutely berserk. Indeed, the difference between the likely behavior of disappointed Trump partisans and disappointed Biden partisans is proof positive that the Democrats should never again be trusted with national (or other) power.
This is a bloody future, make no mistake about it, and I can understand why 7 members of the SCOTUS – including all three of Trump’s appointees – shied away from hearing the Texas lawsuit which might well have led to it. Its beginning would make the orgy of rioting, looting, arson, and general mayhem from late May 2020 seem like a garden party.
However reluctant conservatives generally might be to take up their weapons and fight, they would have no choice but to do that for their own survival and that of their families. The states would split, and not along obvious geographical lines: the bluest of blue states have conservative sections, and most red states have large urban areas with black majorities that are Democrat strongholds. How Asians and Hispanics would split is anyone’s guess.
Add to this the reality that the military will split politically if not racially: The POTUS can Federalize the National Guard but the National Guard in disaffected states like Oregon and Washington may not all obey. Navies and air forces are traditionally the most vulnerable to revolutionary propaganda, having the most people who have gone through college and thus been exposed (in the case of the U.S.) to the same “cultural Marxist” indoctrination as their civilian counterparts.
Even the Army and Marine Corps are not immune – does no one recall the photos a few years back of a group of graduating black female West Point cadets giving the “black power” salute while in uniform? None was disciplined, they are likely captains today, and they are NOT alone out there. POTUS and conservatives can prevail, but it will be a close-run thing, and the country will be torn asunder. One shudders to think what other countries will do as this unfolds.
The third and very grim prospect is the “endless civil war” dystopia – akin to an American internal variant of Europe’s gruesome Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648). This conflict never really ends on its own, although external intervention might eventually bring that about. There are the same splits as in the preceding example. Contending governments are declared in different places, each claiming to represent the entire country – expect them to come and go like leaves in a high wind. This may well remove the U.S. from the roster of nations as it essentially consumes itself. And as for losses? Well, one estimate is that in the Thirty Years’ War, one-third of the population of the German states died. I expect to at least match that in this dystopia.
The fourth and final dystopia is a true “Orwellian world,” an unholy blend of 1984 and Animal Farm – and I apologize to the spirit of George Orwell if I unwittingly have taken him out of context. It is the same in most respects as the second dystopia, with one key difference: the Marxist or neo-Marxist (however one thinks of it) Left wins the civil war, defeats Trump and his conservative supporters, and at least nominally brings a Democrat party to power – minus Biden, of course, but he would be long gone in any case. Want a precedent?
Think Russia in 1921 at the end of its civil war, when the Bolsheviks defeated the Whites and their foreign allies. Think of what followed in the Soviet Union, in relatively short order. What happens in the Democratic People’s Republic of America (or whatever it comes to be called) is likely to be far, far worse.
The Path Not Taken?
Am I exaggerating the alternatives awaiting America? No. Could America have averted this dismal fork in a more than muddy, bloody road? Ultimately, no – the rot has been festering in our colleges and universities and in our society at large for too long: those committed to the erasing of our history and the destruction of our culture and system of government have used the very freedoms we treasured to cloak their activities.
Had Trump invoked the Insurrection Act no later than early June, arrested some of the most outrageous Democrat mayors and governors for sedition, and sent regular troops – Marines and Airborne preferably – to some of the most violent cities with orders to crush the riots, it might well have bought time. But we are where we are, and that is the end of it.
These outcomes are not equally likely. The first is most likely to occur; the third and fourth are possible but not probable. The second is the wild card, a real unknown: Trump made serious mistakes but the fraud was very real. How much do his supporters really care? I have only one piece of advice: If you fight, make damn sure you win – because if you lose, we lose everything, and there will be no second chance for generations – if ever.
Alan Ned Sabrosky (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is a writer and consultant specializing in national and international security affairs. In December 1988, he received the Superior Civilian Service Award after more than five years of service at the U.S. Army War College as Director of Studies, Strategic Studies Institute, and holder of the General of the Army Douglas MacArthur Chair of Research. He is listed in WHO’S WHO IN THE EAST (23rd ed.). A Marine Corps Vietnam veteran and a 1986 graduate of the U.S. Army War College, Dr. Sabrosky’s teaching and research appointments have included the United States Military Academy, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Middlebury College and Catholic University; while in government service, he held concurrent adjunct professorships at Georgetown University and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Dr. Sabrosky has lectured widely on defense and foreign affairs in the United States and abroad.
His published work includes thirteen books or monographs and over one hundred sixty articles, chapters and book reviews. Among his books are Alliances in U.S. Foreign Policy, The Recourse to War: An Appraisal of the “Weinberger Doctrine”, and Prisoners of War? Nation-States in the Modern Era; he is completing a book-length study on the U.S. use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy, called Presidential War: The Politics of Military Intervention. A native of Lansing Michigan and a 1959 graduate of Sexton High School, he currently owns a computer business and resides in Jackson, Mississippi. He can be contacted at: firstname.lastname@example.org.