The Russians are still winning. They’ve had a reverse at Kherson, although Western media are almost certainly exaggerating the effectiveness of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. As expected, Russia has not deployed chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, Western scare stories notwithstanding. It’s now clear that there was a DVD plot to assassinate Russian President Putin early in the war, which thankfully failed. In my estimation the war is likely to drag on until spring 2023 at the earliest.
This is almost the only media outlet in the Western world willing to report on the war objectively. Rodney Atkinson is also doing his best with Freenations.net, but his readership, sadly, is in inverse proportion to his intellectual honesty. Anti-Russian propaganda organs like the BBC and the Guardian have persistently over-reported Russian casualties and under-reported Ukrainian ones.
It would be enormously helpful, frankly, if the Russian government reported casualties in the way that Britain did, for example, during the First World War, sorry Special Military Operation. However transparency, I’m afraid, is not the Russian way. This in turn makes it easy for Russian losses to be exaggerated.
My sense is that the Russians are taking heavy casualties, sadly, but nothing like the numbers being reported in the West. I also sense that the Ukrainians are taking heavier casualties than the Russians. Kiev is even less transparent than Moscow. There’s no chance of anyone in the Ukrainian government coming clean about the funding of President Zelensky’s political comedy show, for example!
Alleged war crimes
There have been no credible allegations of Russian war crimes. There have been lots of allegations but none has been proved. Disturbingly, the setting up of the Russians has involved a number of war crimes being committed by the Ukrainians themselves.
It is not a war crime to attack a residential building if that building is being used to mount attacks, nor is it a war crime to cause collateral civilian casualties. There were a large number of collateral civilian casualties in World War II for example. A large number of the 18,000 Jerries knocked over in the great Anglo-American raids on Dresden in February 1945, for example, were civilians, but that didn’t make the raids a war crime, since Dresden was a legitimate strategic target. It was a wizard prang, by the way – dead Jerries everywhere, no offense intended.
There is no doubt that Western publics have been shocked at the levels of destruction and casualties. They shouldn’t have been. The war was made inevitable by the aggressive expansionist policies of NATO and the EU, driven of course by Germany, the controlling power of both organisations. The Biden Administration fully supported Ukraine’s illegal bio-weapons program and almost certainly signed off on the plan to attack the Donbas Republics.
Once NATO and the EU went down the path of war heavy casualties were going to be inevitable, sadly. Supplying advance weaponry to Kiev was a nonsense. As I have observed before the Russo-Ukrainian War is in effect a proxy war between Russia and Germany. Leaving German intelligence in place at the end of World War II made the resumption of large-scale hostilities in Europe inevitable.
The casus bellum
The Russians are also being secretive about their casus bellum for attacking Ukraine. It’s now clear that the Ukrainians were planning an offensive against the Donbas Republics, with covert support from Germany, the EU and the Biden Administration. Since they are arguably sovereign and were under Russian protection Russia was justified in moving first, as Israel did in the Six Day War.
It’s also clear that the covert Ukrainian bio-weapons program involved developing DNA-specific weapons targeting ethnic Russians. DNA weapons are both dangerous and illegal, involving automatic violations of the Genocide Convention. Public international law does not require a state faced with such a threat to sit still and wait for a genocidal bio-weapons attack.
However the Russians are not making the case. In fairness it would not be easy, given the low ethical standards of Western media organisations, most of which are willing to distort the truth in order to promote the Ukrainian cause. I think the Russians should try however.
Moscow are probably still hung up on the West’s decision to wage war against Iraq without declaring it, on the basis of a casus bellum known at the time to be false. As I warned at the time the failures to declare war and go public on what we knew about Iraq’s links to 9/11 were hugely damaging. Neither Britain nor America has any standing to criticise Russia.
Russian war aims
The West is being left to guess at Russia’s war aims, which with respect are somewhat opaque. It is entirely possible that Moscow would have settled at the start of the war with the liberation of the Donbas Republics and the retention of Crimea. Piling weapons into the Ukraine however has been a huge mistake. They have driven up Russian casualties and hardened Russia’s position.
I suspect that Moscow is now looking at breaking the Ukraine into two, down the Dnieper River. That would give eastern Ukraine a defensible frontier. Western Ukraine would have to agree to neutrality – there is simply no way that Russia could ever permit NATO to deploy nuclear weapons in any part of the Ukraine.
The good news is that EU support for the Bad Guys is likely to drain away as winter approaches. Natural gas rationing in a warm summer is one thing. Gas rationing in winter is quite another. What’s more, with global cooling we could be in for a slightly chilly winter. General Winter may come to Russia’s aid once again!
The Tory leadership battle
The Bad Guy, Rishi Sunak, is losing, thankfully. As a number of commentators have picked up, whilst he was well prepared for the Parliamentary stage he seemed less well prepared for the party membership stage. Since he never wanted the membership stage that’s unsurprising.
I think it’s quite clear that ‘von’ Sunak, who is close to the sinister World Economic Forum, was planning on raving moderate, no offense intended, Penny Mordaunt, making the final two and cutting a deal. Since she’s economically illiterate, again no offense, she would have been seen by Cabinet Secretary Simon ‘von’ Case as an ideal Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Sunak, with every respect, is a BRINO – a Brexiteer in Name Only. As Chancellor he failed to abolish VAT, opposed scrapping the hated Northern Ireland Protocol and was happy to see the British economy crushed under the weight of the huge EU regulatory burden and massive taxation. My assessment is that he supports the evil Cabinet Office plan to install Re-joiner Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and have the UK re-join the EU in two stages, the first being membership of the single market.
Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP have struck a deal, whereby the first two enter into coalition, bringing in proportional representation, without a referendum, in order to lock the Tories out of power for a generation. Re-joining the single market would make it easier for the SNP to win a second referendum on breaking up the UK and becoming a German client state inside the EU.
Sunak has said nothing about forcing ‘von’ Case to resign, indeed it’s clear that he intends to retain him as Cabinet Secretary. The desperation of Germany to crush Britain should never be underestimated. Nothing’s changed since 1939. They hate us, they fear us and they want to destroy us.
My prediction is that the result will be similar to that of the Women’s Euros soccer finals: England 2, Germany 1.
Well done to Leah Williamson and the girls by the way on their splendid win at Wembley! It wasn’t easy.
Germany’s players dived faster than a U-Boat which has spotted a Sunderland overhead, no offense intended. The ‘Lionesses’ nickname is well deserved.
No column next week as a friend has kindly paid for a short holiday in Ireland, although I’ll be doing the driving and paying for the gas! If you think that gas is expensive in the States you should try filling your tank over here. Even low octane fuel, which thanks to the EU is horrible muck, with 10% ethanol content, is about $10.11 per Imperial gallon.
Bernard Cribbins (1928 – 2022)
Much loved actor Bernard Cribbins sadly passed on Wednesday. One of the greatest children’s actors of all time, he starred as Perks in the original movie of the Railway Children. He had a wide range as an actor, on the stage, radio and TV as well as in movies.
Aside from great children’s movies like the Railway Children he was best known for starring in famous British comedies like Two Way Stretch (1960), the Wrong Arm of the Law (1963) and Crooks in Cloisters (1964), which is a hoot. He also starred in three Carry On movies., including the finale, Carry on Columbus (1992).
His most noted TV performance was probably as Mr Hutchinson, the obnoxious guest in the Hotel Inspectors, one of the funniest episodes of Fawlty Towers. Bernard Cribbins was loved for a reason and he will be greatly missed. He and his actress wife Gillian were married for 66 years, until she sadly died last year. He must have missed her greatly, indeed he seems to have gone into a decline after she went.
Treorchy Male Choir
I neglected to include a link last week for the Treorchy Male Choir. This is them singing Joseph Parry’s hauntingly beautiful love song Myfanwy:
Now tell me those boys can’t sing!
Michael Shrimpton was a barrister from his call to the Bar in London in 1983 until being disbarred in 2019 over a fraudulently obtained conviction. He is a specialist in National Security and Constitutional Law, Strategic Intelligence and Counter-terrorism. He is a former Adjunct Professor of Intelligence Studies at the American Military University.
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