…by Jim W. Dean, VT Editor
[ Editor’s Note: This is a quick overview of the virus progression for busy people from the best link I have found. They recently made a change with the easy to view Active and Closed cases.
The comparison of the deaths to those that have been infected is a useless number as it does not indicate the lethality that we all want to know, hence we have the closed cases on the right side of the first box where we can follow “outcomes” with a glance.
If you jump back and forth between the two part charts and the related text this will be easier to follow.
Right now we are looking at a closed case death rate of 7%. That number is inflated by the higher death incidence in the beginning when the disease was spreading without adequate intervention. Now the medical system can begin treatment quicker and early before people have a full blown case, where people in good health will of course have much better results.
On the left side we seen a new split, showing the percentage of the active cases that are serious, which is 18%, another key number to watch to see how it trends.
For example it hopefully will go down due to more effective treatments, like the one the Chinese discovered where those recovering are donating blood plasma, as survivors’ blood has high levels of antibodies. This plasma is being used to save others in serious/critical condition.
Hopefully all recovered patients will all be donating blood for this purpose in a shared humanitarian effort to be one of the bright spots in the battle.
Part 2
In the country chart below here is what I quickly spotted, hunting for any variables that stand out. This kind of analysis in limited without having the ages of the patients because we know that pneumonia is a billing killer of seniors annually.
At some point we will probably see a breakdown comparing those over 65, and then 75 that have been dying compared to younger groups, so we have an age range lethality measure.
For the China numbers, the “rate of deathrs should be a big inflated from those that will follow as it had a high incidence of transmission early on due to large numbers of emergency room patients in crowded waiting rooms, sometimes waiting a day to be seen, and spreading it to patients who had come in for something else.
One early patient was sent home to await a test report, where he infected others, and then came back to the hospital to sit in the waiting room to infect more. Most of the Chinese emergency people were not even wearing masks at this time and is where all the Wuhan Hospital staff people got sick initially.
So that shows us that the hospitals will have to set up separate entrances for people coming in with virus symptoms and not be mixed with other patients. Or maybe people in large cities directed to specifically coronavirus treatment facilities initially.
Other anomalies: Italy has a lot more deaths than S. Korea, but who has three times the infected. Italy has double the recovered patients with only a third many active cases, and then flips to have ten times the critical cases at 105, compared to 10 of S, Korea with triple the active cases. What’s up with that? This hint of a major difference in the quality of care.
These figures will need carefully reviewing by health org analytical teams to spot things some countries might be doing wrong, and also to share anything that is working better in others.
We will not be burning piles of bodies in the streets like in WWII Dresden, but we might be burning economies down by over reacting, or politicians like Trump thinking he can bluff his a way through.
When well known Dr. Sanjay Gupta was asking Trump a follow up question on the rate of infection comparison with SARS, Trump cut in quickly to say they were about the same. You can see on the video the Gupta was stunned. When he tried to follow up Trump cut him off with his usual repetition ploy.
I saw Gupta’s follow up interview of the press briefing exchange. Coronavirus has 20 times as transmissible than SARS, once again showing Trump trying to dominate public opinion toward what he wants people to think.
And lastly…the masks. The big news is they don’t really work, the top quality kind. These $1 ones were tested against the regular 10 cent surgical masks and were basically the same in terms of preventing something coming in.
But where the masks do primarily work is stop someone who has it from spreading it around more. Hopefully there will be close coordination on all of this and we will get the best information from those most able to give it…Jim W. Dean]
Jim W. Dean is VT Editor Emeritus. He was an active editor on VT from 2010-2022. He was involved in operations, development, and writing, plus an active schedule of TV and radio interviews. He now writes and posts periodically for VT.
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Yes, The Chinese are already using blood plasma from recovered patients, for the more seriously ill, for that purpose. I would be nice if we had a team where one person could stay glued to the evolution of one specific aspect of this moving story to help keep us up to date, but for now we have the comment boards, which is a good start.
Frig below has another link that I had not dug down enough to find. There might be more there, or it might be too early to do an ethnic report. Our have to have data being published by the respective countries, and I assume this is official government health ministry numbers, the safest to use for publishing. But the main point here is we have not seen this type of information from our own government on MSM. Gosh, could it be an oversight, or to they want to hog the microphone like Trump did at the press conference, faking pretending he knew the transmissability of the virus was about the same as SARS, when coronavirus is 20 times worse.
“One early patient was sent home to await a test report, where he infected others, and then came back to the hospital to sit in the waiting room to infect more. Most of the Chinese emergency people were not even wearing masks at this time and is where all the Wuhan Hospital staff people got sick initially. ”
I work in a hospital in the USA. I am fairly familiar with the protocols for dealing with infectious disease, I am a member of our ‘E. Bola’ team. Trained to take in patients and maintain PPE while providing care for those who are infectious. The scenario above (perhaps minus the Coronavirus) mentioned in the article happens daily with flu patients NOW in the US. Screening and prevention is not the priority in practice in medicine at the level it needs to be if we are to be prepared for a pandemic.
I would estimate, and this is just from observation, a high % of antibiotics are still prescribed without conclusive testing and are still harmfully used to treat viruses. With this great private healthcare system we have the more corporate it becomes the less incentivized it is for prevention. It will be valuable to compare systems like China’s with our private healthcare modal in effectiveness for dealing with these types of health emergencies.
Are there any charts or graphs breaking down infection rates by ethnic groups? Have there been any reported cases inside the separation walls of Israel yet?
Human hand. Yes it’s a bio weapon no science says is a natural mutation. Just look at who claims they have a solution to the problem. I would not be taking any rushed untested vaccine EVER Altering dna of all humanity is an easy given by this crisis wait and see how many billions of dollars are up for grabs by the usual satanic kabbalah mafia
Hi Jim, the site you posted has a page with age breakdown. Also gender and pre-existing conditions. Not, the death rate could be 20+ % in the 80+ year old category, but only .9% for those with no pre-existing conditions.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/#ref-2
Thanks for this Frig. This is great info and I will included an a follow up VT piece today.I had not dug down that deep at the link. This is what we love about having a good comment board as our readers can contribute adding to the story. We of course can’t be aware of everything and one of the main purposes of VT is saving regular folks the grunt work of running stuff down, and then of course sifting out the fake stuff, or “greatly enhanced”, which has became a huge industry. I just got a well presented piece from a major Brit PR firm about organ harvesting in China titled “Final judgement….”. I of course pointed out to him that he forgot to include anything about who the final judgement judges were. I double I will hear back from him.
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