How to solve the problem of “strategic uncertainty”

MOSCOW, 21 april 2022, RUSSTRAT Institute.
The phrase “collective West” can no longer be excluded from circulation. What is meant by it? The United States and its closest allies, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and several other countries of continental Europe. As we can see, these are different countries in different regions of the world.

The United States is engaged in ensuring the unity of approaches of these different countries to solving world problems. This is already obvious, and therefore the United States can be accused of violating global (strategic, if you will) stability.

For this purpose, all kinds of economic, military and political alliances were created: the EU (28 countries), NATO (30 countries), QUAD (Australia, India, USA, Japan), AUKUS (Australia, Great Britain, USA, quite “fresh” – from September 15, 2021). Huge economic and military opportunities are being combined. For example, the NATO budget is about half of the world’s military spending.

Why are such alliances created? In order to ensure a dominant position in… yes, that’s right – the economy due to economic and military superiority. Due to the exclusively pirated neocolonial approach. All other effects, including military superiority, result from this economic setup.

Here we can recall the famous saying of the Prussian (and Russian, too) officer Karl von Clausewitz: “War is nothing more than the continuation of politics (diplomacy) by other means.” And then it is worth remembering the “patriarch” of the new at that time (1867 – the first edition of Capital) ideas of the social structure of Karl Marx, who convincingly proved that politics is always secondary to economics.

Applying the method of induction to reasoning, we get: economy is primary, war is its second derivative. Does it follow from this that in case of deterioration of economic conditions, we should expect an increase in the aggressiveness of the main participants in the process? A cursory assessment shows that this is exactly what is happening. Only this process is not instantaneous. It lasts for decades and periodically escalates.

Now there is just another aggravation. Is it able to go from “cold” to “hot”? Quite so. Is there a way to stop the world from sliding into a Third World War, which would definitely become nuclear? Yes.

It is necessary to stop the leading “aggressor” – the United States. It is this country that is constantly raising the bar of aggression, involving allies in various ways in dangerous stories.

Does the US have painful points? Sure. Here, for example, is what they are afraid of: strengthening of the alliance of Russia and China; nuclear war; the fall of the dollar system; reduction of the effectiveness of the military-industrial complex. They also have exorbitant state debt, including huge obligations to external creditors.

And to pay, for example, only on the interest on the debt, it is necessary in increasingly large amounts. So far it is about 600 billion, but it looks like it will soon be a trillion a year. Where to get this amount of money? Isn’t that the reason for their rage?

Let’s leave aside the economy for now. Let’s return to the military component. What can be used to oppose the United States in this matter? Before that, the reasoning took place at the level of logic. Now let’s judge at the level of mathematics.

Let’s assume that it turns out to put into practice the formula: Russia + China – USA = WORLD. Although it is also more from logic than from mathematics. Excluding only US military influence from the world agenda will immediately exclude American military allies from it. No matter how much they strive for further world domination on their own, they will not succeed. The combined military power of Russia and China will make them more attentive to the legitimate interests of the new military-political bloc.

Why would a new block arise? At least from the consideration “why can they, but we can not”. But this is almost childish reasoning, although not completely devoid of meaning. Firstly, an alliance of such power will immediately arise, which so far no one has even dreamed of. This alone should enlighten opponents.

Secondly, our countries will immediately be able to actively begin solving the hardened problems left to us by the same US and its “comrades”. We will deal with neo-nazism in Ukraine in a calmer way. China will also calmly solve the Taiwan problem. If earlier the Chinese leadership agreed with (again) the formula “one country, two systems”, now it can implement another option – “China is one”.

What can push China towards such a solution to the problem? It’s the same example of Russia, which is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. After all, it was clear that sooner or later Russia would undertake the elimination of Ukrainian neo-nazism.

And now it has become clear that a real war has been unleashed against us under the leadership of the United States. China is closely monitoring the development of events. And it can conclude – then they will become a military target.

It is not necessary to analyse the situation for a long time. It is enough to pay attention to the absolute symmetry of the relations of the “collective West” to Russia and China. There are the same military alliances around, including with nuclear weapons (again, American, and British, too), the same attacks on the state system, the same sanctions, intimidating military exercises, threats, the same intentions to make the life of the population unbearable, the same appeal to separatism. Only geographically, we are under pressure from the west, and China from the east.

The West is already openly declaring: Russia and China are enemies number one and two. At the same time, the numbering is constantly changing. They still cannot decide which of the countries is more threatening to them. The expected outcome is that both countries will be enemies number one, only there will be a few different accompanying rhetoric. There is no other way out.

We will also make allowances for the Americans. After all, they are tormented by the question of “strategic instability”. By this term, they understand the recognition of Taiwan as part of China with the support of “Taiwan’s ability to defend itself”. Notice the duality of the approach? This is the uncertainty. Why is it strategic? Because its resolution in kind can lead to war with China. This is exactly the strategic level of the conflict.

After that, the United States will also lose its desire to involve its regional allies in the conflict. Due to lack of necessity. The issue can be resolved unilaterally by China and not necessarily by military means. Taiwan may be offered a completely working scheme for the transition to continental legislation. As an option.

A strong military-political alliance between Russia and China will allow to “push” the United States to the margins of history and begin a new, safe life on our continent.