The Pentagon has developed a “conceptual plan” ( CONPLAN ) for a war with Iran, codenamed Support Sentry, the independent American resource The Intercept reported . Iran’s CONPLAN is “an extensive contingency plan for war that the Pentagon is developing in anticipation of a potential crisis.”
US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman Major James Moore declined the publication’s request to comment on the development of the Iranian CONPLAN.
Last June, the Israel Defense Forces announced a three-day operational-strategy meeting with CENTCOM .
In late January, the United States and Israel held the largest joint military exercise in history called Juniper Oak (Juniper Oak).
During the exercises, strikes against targets simulating threats from the sea were practiced. During the exercises, the refueling of Israeli fighters and bombers in the air by heavy American KC-46 tankers was also worked out.
An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israeli aircraft is extremely difficult due to Israel’s lack of such flying tankers. Israel asked the United States many times to hand over the KC-46 to it), but this did not happen. The ability to refuel in the air is critical for a bomber that will have to fly more than 2,000 miles in Arab airspace. The Juniper Oak exercises have shown that Israeli aircraft will be able to deliver effective shuttle strikes against Iran only with the support of American KC-46s and only when the US gives the go-ahead.
On March 9, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin arrived in Israel and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following the talks, Austin said that the United States and Israel would do everything possible to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
In September last year, the US military intelligence portal Critical Threats began daily monitoring of protests in Iran, on the basis of which the coordination and incitement of these protests is carried out within the framework of the Pentagon projects Minerva and EMBERS (Embers) . Both of these projects were actively applied in 2019. These projects are the development of the military program The Human Terrain System (HTS) , which involved anthropologists, sociologists, political scientists, linguists, who developed schemes for managing the mentality of the population of Iraq and Afghanistan during the invasion of the US army.
Meanwhile, the US military intervention in Iran does not bode well for the aggressor, which was proved in 2002 during the naval exercises Millennium Challenge , during which military operations against Iran were practiced. The US military was designated “Blue” and Iran was designated “Red”. After the Reds received an ultimatum from the Blues demanding total surrender, they used their mosquito fleet of fast boats to launch a massive preemptive cruise missile attack on the Blues’ ships, overloaded their air defense and missile defense systems, and conditionally destroyed 16 ships, including including an aircraft carrier, 10 cruisers and five of the six landing ships. In real combat operations, this would lead to the death of more than 20 thousand personnel.
The negative experience of the Millennium Challenge 2002 was taken into account by the US military. In 2009, analysts at The Brookings Institution prepared a report, Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy towards Iran . It stated: “Any military operation against Iran is likely to be very unpopular around the world… The best way to minimize international condemnation and ensure maximum support is to strike only when there is a widespread belief that the Iranians were an excellent agreement was offered, but they rejected it … In these circumstances, the United States (or Israel) can present the operation as an unfortunate necessity, and not as a rage.
Even in such a situation, Iran will not wait until the US and Israel strike at its strategic targets. In December 2021, Tehran Times published an article “One Wrong Move” , which featured two cards. One pointed to hundreds of potential targets in Israel, the second pointed to the locations of pro-Iranian formations in Syria and Lebanon, from where attacks on Israel could be launched. Hezbollah units in Lebanon and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have Iranian Fajr-3 missiles with a range of up to 43 km, capable of hitting targets in central Israel and “oversaturating Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.”
The newspaper cited the words of the chief of the General Staff of the Iranian army, Muhammad Bagheri: “Iran never ignores the threats of enemies and is ready to respond to any strategic threats.” The article ended with the words of Ayatollah Khamenei: “If they make a mistake, the Islamic Republic will destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa.”
Jonas E. Alexis has degrees in mathematics and philosophy. He studied education at the graduate level. His main interests include U.S. foreign policy, the history of the Israel/Palestine conflict, and the history of ideas. He is the author of the book, Kevin MacDonald’s Metaphysical Failure: A Philosophical, Historical, and Moral Critique of Evolutionary Psychology, Sociobiology, and Identity Politics. He teaches mathematics in South Korea.